YOKOHAMA SHIRITSU DAIGAKU RONSO,
vol.40,no1-3.March 1990.
RAPID POPULATION GROWTH IN 17-18TH CENTURY CHINA
1. Introduction
Chinese population at the end of 1986 , according to the
communique of the State Statistical Bureau of China which was announced in the
February 22, 1987, was 1.06 billion . The Chinese
people are now striving to keep the population within 1.20 billion in the year
2000(
Kexue Jishu Wenxian Chubanshe,1984). Furthermore,
a maximum population of 1.50 billion is foreseen to be achieved around 2050
A.D.( ibid.). The population problem is one of the most serious matters in the
course of China's programme of the Four Modernizations.
Facing the future, the Chinese people began to reconsider
the historical development of the population, and has achieved some results in
the study of demography. The purpose of this paper is to review recent study in
this field, focussing on the 17-18th centuries.
2. Traditional View on Population Growth
At first I would like to introduce Tian Xue-yuan's(田雪原) article . He is now
director of the Population Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences. Tian wrote:
According to early historical records, China's population
in the early period of the Xia dynasty ( about 21st to 16th centuries B.C.) was
13.5 millions. Two thousand years later, by 2 A.D.during the Western Han
dynasty ( 206 B.C.-23 A.D.), it had reached 59.59 millions. The constant
warfare and unrest characterizing the period of the Three Kingdoms ( 220-280 )
and the Northern and Southern dynasties ( 386-589 ) brought in their wake a
sharp fall in population. But by 609 A.D.during the Sui dynasty ( 581-618 ) it
had risen again to 46.02 millions and by 754 A.D.during the Tang dynasty (
618-907 ) it had reached 52.88 millions. The population figure declined
slightly to 46.73 millions by 1110 A.D. in the Song dynasty, and there was
another rise by 1290 A.D. in the Yuan dynasty ( 1279-1368 ) to 58.85 millions.
But none of these figures exceeded the level recorded in 2 A.D., and in fact it
was not until 1393 during the Ming dynasty ( 1368-1644 ) that population
surpassed 60.00 millions. During the Qing dynasty ( 1644-1911 ) the level rose
further to 205.59 millions by 1764, soaring to 412.99 millions in 1849.
Finally, according to the Kuomintang government's statistics, the population
figure for 1947 was 455.59 millions. It must be stressed, of course, that these
historical statistics are not very accurate and it is quite likely that there
were many omissions in their compilation. In addition, territorial changes also
had an impact on the size of the population. Nevertheless, these figures can be
taken to represent a rough picture of China's population growth over the
centuries.( Tian 1981, pp.33-34 )
Tian's article was published in
（Beijing,
New World Press, 1981 ), which was one of the first English books on the
‘studies of Chinese society, both contemporary and historical, by either
Chinese or foreign authors'( from the book-cover explanation ) after the
installation of the Deng Xiao-ping regime. Therefore we can take these figures
as widely accepted by Chinese people at that time. This popular view will be
challenged soon. Following the view of Tian and other Chinese scholars, I wrote
in my book
( China in the Year 2000 ) in 1984 the table below.
I put question marks on the suspicious figures. These figures will be checked
soon.
Table 1 Chinese population : a popular view
────────────────────────────────────────year dynastic
period population (million) ────────────────────────────────────────2
A.D. Han dynasty (206 B.C.-23 A.D.) 60.00 280 Three Kingdom (220-280) 16.00 606 Sui dynasty (581-618) 46.00 755 Tang dynasty (618-907) 53.00
1080
Song dynasty (960-1279) 33.00 ?? 1290 Yuan dynasty (1279-1368) 59.00 ?? 1570 Ming dynasty (1368-1644) 61.00 ?? 1812 Qing dynasty (1644-1911)
334.00 1947
Minguo (1911-1949) 456.00 1949
People's Republic 542.00 1954
〃 603.00 1964 〃 705.00 1969 〃
807.00 1974
〃 909.00 1981 〃 1001.00 2000 ( projected ) 1200-1300 ────────────────────────────────────────
3. Emperor's mistake on population figures
According to the Qing Shilu ( Chronicles of Each Emperor During the Qing Dynasty ), the outline of the population growth is as follows :
Table 2 Population in the Qing dynasty ( official record )
────────────────────────────────────────year (dynastic
period)
population (million) ────────────────────────────────────────1651
(Shunzhi 8 nian)
10.63 1661
(Shunzhi 18 nian)
21.07 1710
(Kangxi 49 nian)
23.31 1734
(Yongzheng 12 nian)
26.42 1741
(Qianlong 6 nian) 143.41 1762
(Qianlong 27 nian) 200.47 1783
(Qianlong 47 nian) 307.46 1820
(Jiaqing 25 nian) 355.54 1834
(Quangdao 14 nian) 401.01 1851
(Xianfeng yuannian) 432.16 1875
(Guangxu yuannian) 322.65 1918
(Minguo 8 nian) 438.43 ────────────────────────────────────────
As you see in table 2 , from 1734 to 1741 the population
increased more than five times within seven years. Did it really happen ? Was
it possible ? According to the
( Documents of the Song, Liao, Jin, Yuan, Ming
Period, Vols. 250, compiled in 1737 ), from 1710 to 1783 the population
increased ‘more than fifteen times'. Was it possible to have increased thirteen
times in seventy-two years ? These two problems form a long-suspended question.
Many Chinese scholars have been confused by these figures. Tian's article is
also based on these figures.
For example, Peng Xin-wei (彭信威) wrote in 1958, as follows : the record reads,
‘from 1731 to 1741 population increased more than five times within ten years ;
that was absolutely impossible.' Recently, in 1979, Xie Zhong-liang(謝忠梁) wrote as follows : ‘In
the beginning of the Qing dynasty national population according to the records
was about 10 odd million. After 1684, it exceeds 20 million. However, it
increased quite rapidly to 140 million by 1741.'
These interpretations of historical records are not
reasonable in light of demographic experiences, therefore Chinese scholars
began to doubt the credibility of official statistics on the Qing dynasty
population. For example, Li Xun( 李洵) concluded in 1955 that ‘ the official population
statistics in the Qing Dynasty are incredible.' Another historian Lu zhen-yu （呂振羽) declared that ‘this
population growth does not mean economic prosperity, but means incredibility of
figures.'
On the other hand, some scholars who believed the figures,
made a different interpretation. Shang Yue ( 尚鉞) wrote in 1955 as follows : (comparing the figure
of 51.65 million in the end of Ming dynasty to that of 19.87 million in 1660 ),
‘phenomena of great population decrease explain the serious social
contradictions in Chinese society before the Qianlong period ( 1736-1795 ).
Manchurian conquest and destruction caused long-time stagnation in Qing
society.'
One more example is offered by Fan Wen-lan(范文瀾). According to Fan, the
figure of 56 million in the early Ming dynasty, 140 million in the Qianlong
period ( 1736-1795 ), and 410 million in the Daoguang period ( 1821-1850 ) are
all ‘nan-ding'( male adults ), therefore, in calculating the actual population,
females and children must be added. If added, the population will be at least
doubled in each figure. Thus, Fan Wen-lan concluded that every figure reported
less than the actual. The idea to distinguish males and females may be quite
true as I show later in the case of Song dynasty statistics, but is not correct
in the Qing period.
A young student of Fudan University has succeeded in
solving this big problem. Ma Xiao-he ( 馬小鶴), who was a second-year student in the history
department when he wrote the article, published ‘Qingdai Qianqi Renkou Shuzi
Kanwu'( Correction of Errors on the Population Figures in the Early Qing Period
) in
( Journal of Fudan University ), in 1980. He argued
that the figures up to 1734 in table 1 indicate the number of male adults,
which is almost the same as the number of families, and after 1741 they
indicate the number of people.
Broadly speaking, population in the Ming dynasty was
around 50 to 60 million, and the number of families was around 10 million, Ma
Xiao-he pointed out. Ma also maintains that Shang Yue mistook family for
population, and Fan Wen-lan mistook population for male adults. The
which is cited by Ma, used the words ‘rending
hukou'(人丁戸口)
which mean male adult's family, and ‘da-xiao nan-fu' ( 大小男婦) which mean adults,
children, male and female.
Then Ma supposed that each male adult's family had five
members including the male adult and, therefore, the population figures were
five times larger than those of the number of families. Thus table 2 will be
revised as table 3 .
Table 3 Population in the Qing dynasty, revised
────────────────────────────────────────year(dynastic
period) population
(million) annual
increase rate ──────────────────────────％─────────────1651 (Shunzhi 8
nian)
10.63 ×5 = 53.15 1661 (Shunzhi 18 nian) 21.07 ×5 = 103.35 6.87 Recovery Factor 1710 (Kangxi 49 nian) 23.31 ×5 = 116.55 0.24 1734 (Yongzheng 12 nian) 26.42 ×5 = 132.10 0.52 1741
(Qianlong 6 nian)
143.41 1.65 1762
(Qianlong 27 nian)
200.47 1.60 1783
(Qianlong 47 nian)
307.46 2.05 1820
(Jiaqing 25 nian)
355.54 0.39 1834
(Quangdao 14 nian)
401.01 0.86 1851
(Xianfeng yuannian)
432.16 0.44 1875
(Guangxu yuannian)
322.65 -1.22 Taiping Rebellion 1918
(Minguo 8 nian)
438.43 0.71 ────────────────────────────────────────
As you see on table 3, population increased up to 80-90
million during the Shunzhi period, up to 120 million during the Kangxi period,
up to 130-140 million during the Yongzheng period, up to 300 million during the
Qianlong period, up to 430 million during the Xianfeng period. According to
these figures there was no ‘sudden breakthrough' between 1734 and 1741. The
alleged big destruction between the end of the Ming Dynasty and the beginning
of the Qing Dynasty was not so serious, and the economic development level of
the Kangxi and the Yongzheng period was not lower than that of the Ming period.
Thus Ma's discovery resolved one of the long-suspended questions. But here I
should hurriedly add for fairness that Ma was not necessarily the first
discoverer of this truth. For example, the Chinese American scholar Ping-ti Ho(何炳棣), wrote in 1962 as
follows : The population was more than 65.00 million at the beginning of the Ming
period and probably more than doubled itself by about 1600. From the late
seventeenth century onward population was growing at rates hitherto unknown. By
1800 it reached 300.00 millions and it shot up by 1850 to some 430.00 million.(
Ho 1962,p.219 ). But before China opened her door to the western world,
cultural exchanges were quite limited, so Chinese scholars might not have
reached the academic achievement which was attained in the United States.
By the way, why had such misunderstanding happened ? The
roots of the error originated in the book
This book cited Emperor Qianlong's remark in 1793
saying ‘population had increased more than fifteen times'. And official
historian must faithfully record an Emperor's remarks word by word. On the
other hand, an official historian is obliged to correct any errors. In this
context, the modern historian Zhou Yuan-he( 周源和), supporting Ma's opinion, commented as follows :
one reason why the error had happened, was that the official historian at that
time, Xu Jin-zao( 許錦藻),
was drowned into a sea of mountainous documents. Another probable reason was,
although Xu Jin-zao realized the Emperor's error, he could not correct it,
because the error was committed by the Emperor himself. Any way, the error was
not corrected until quite recently. This episode suggests the importance of
definition of statistical data.
Here I should mention how Japanese scholars have explained
this problem. For example, Taisuke Mitamura ( 三田村泰助 ) wrote as follows : Emperor Kangxi ordered in
1711 ( Kangxi 50 nian ) that ‘those who would become ‘ding'( male adult ) after
1713 should be exempted from ‘dingshui'( poll tax ). This was the Emperor's
present to the people to commemorate the fifty anniversary of his coronation.
The population increased from 24.60 million in 1711 to 250.00 million in sixty
years, and to 300.00 million in one hundred years. Of course this involved
natural increase, but a more important fact was that it was not necessary for
people to report falsely in order to escape taxes. Obviously, Prof. Mitamura
also confused ‘ding' ( male adult ) with population.
4
A renowned magazine called
( Population Research Bimonthly ), which is
published by the Institute of Population Research, Chinese People's University,
in a recent issue carried a very interesting article by Teng Ze-zhi( 滕澤之). Teng argued that
Chinese population exceeded 100 million in the beginning of the 12th century.
Teng's point is as follows :
According to the
( History of the Song Dynasty, Volumes on Geography
), the number of households was 20.88 million and the population was 46.73
million in 1110( Daguan 4 nian). In this case every household averages 2.24
persons. What does this small number mean ? Actually this number included only
the male population and excluded the female. Teng found a very important record
in the
( Documents up to the Southern Song dynasty,
compiled by Ma Duan-lin during the Yuan dynasty, vols.348 ) saying that in 963
A.D. the Emperor ordered the report of the number of males from 20 to 60 years
old, while ruling that it was unnecessary to report the number of females. If
the number of females is almost the same as the number of males, the accurate
population figure should have been more than 93.00 million in 1110.
Then why did this confusion happen ? Teng explained it as
follows. Emperor Yang of the Sui dynasty exempted female taxation and labor
service--this record is found in the
( History of the Sui Dynasty ). This system was
followed by the Tang dynasty, although silk and cotton cloth production was
actually required of females. However, as regards population statistics, female
numbers were not excluded during the Tang period. Thus, people misunderstood
the Song period statistics as if they were the Tang period case.
Teng confirmed his argument by analysis of the composition
of ages. According to the
( Documents from 756 A.D. to 1644 A.D. 144 vols.,
compiled in 1767 ), in 1078 ( Yuanfeng yuan nian ) there were 14.85 million
households , population was 33.33 million and ‘ding' were 17.84 million. ‘Ding'
occupies 53.58 ％.
Every household has 1.2 ‘ding's from 20 to 59 year old. This is his second
piece of evidence .
The third piece of evidence which Teng pointed out is a
comparison between the end of the Song and the beginning of the Yuan dynasty.
In 1223 ( Jiading 16 nian ) there were 12.67 million households and the
population was 28.30 million.( Teng, p.48, based on the
). In this case every household had 2.24 persons.
In 1290( Zhiyuan 27 nian), after 67 years, there were around 12.30 million
households and the population had increased to 55.97 million suddenly. The only
reasonable explanation is that the number of females was included in the Yuan
statistics, but excluded in the Song statistics.
Teng's conclusion is as follows. If we count minority
people such as Liao 8 million, Xixia 3 million, Tufan 3 million, Dali 3
million, etc., the total population would have exceeded 110 million. This
estimate is rather a conservative one, Teng commented. However, I should
hastily add that Teng was only one of those who asserted a 100 million
population during the Song dynasty. Wuhui(呉慧) also wrote as follows : in the end of the Song
dynasty, in the Huizong period, population was 104.00 million.'( p.165, 1985
but this paper was written in October 1980 ).
On the average number of people in one family, Zhou Bo-di
(周伯棣) wrote
in the
( Financial History of China ) as follows : in the
Western Han period one household had 4.8 persons, in the Eastern Han 5.2
persons, in the Tang period 5.8 persons and in the Song period 2.1 persons.
Liang Fang-zhong said in his
Historical Statistics of Households, Population,
Fields in China ) it ranged from 5.12 persons to 6.82 persons during the Ming
period. During the Qing period, in 1753 there were 38.84 million households,
and the population was 183.67 million, so one household had 4.7 persons. In
1911 there were 71.26 million households, and the population was 368.14
million, so one household had 5.1 persons.
5.
.
Now we have been able to correct two errors, one is the
confusion of the number of households and population, the other is the
confusion between the number of males and total population in the Song period.
We can present a more accurate table than before. Here I will show Wu Hui's
study on population, cultivated land and food production ( Wu Hui 1985 ). Table
4 and 5 are from Wu Hui's book.
Table 4 Population, cultivated land per head and land
productivity
────────────────────────────────────────
year dynastic population cultivated land productivity period ( million ) land per (metric ton ) head (are) (per hectare ) ────────────────────────────────────────B.C.222(Warring
States)
20.0 31.95 1.62 A.D.
23(Western Han )
59.5 28.20 1.98 750(Tang period ) 52.9 28.20 2.51 1100(Song period ) 104.0 28.13 2.32 1600(Ming period ) 130.0 24.22 2.59 1800(Qing period ) 361.0 12.83 2.75 ────────────────────────────────────────Data
are cited from Wuhui p.195.
Table 5 Population,land and land-productivity during the
Qing period
────────────────────────────────────────year population cultivated decrease of
cultivated (annual
land per land per head (million)
increase) head (are) 1753=100 ──────────────────％─────────────────────1753(Qianlong
18 nian) 183.6
27.68
100.0 1766(
〃 31 〃 ) 208.0 0.96 25.95 93.8 1784( 〃 49 〃
) 286.3
1.79 18.38
66.4 1812(Jiaqing
17 〃 ) 361.6 0.84 15.08 54.5 1822(Daoguang 2 〃 ) 372.4 0.29 14.03 50.7 1833( 〃 13 〃 ) 398.9 0.62 12.83 46.4 ────────────────────────────────────────Wuhui
pp.190,191.
From table 4 we can understand a rapid increase of
population during the Qing period and decrease of cultivated land per head.
This was coverred, however, by increasing land productivity.
From table 5 we can understand that the population
increased more than 215 million within 80 years, with an annual increase rate
of 0.97 ％,
nearly one percent －a
high rate. It increased especially rapidly during the Qianlong period. These
increases gave China a heavy burden. Some of the intelligentsia were shocked by
this.
6.
Hong Liang-ji( 洪亮吉,1746-1809 ) was born in Wujin county, Jiangsu
province. He was a famous man of letters and geography. In 1790, when he was 44
years old, he became ‘jinshi'( a title given to the successful candidate of
‘keju' examinations ). In 1799, when a big peasant revolt had happened in
Sichuan,Shanxi and Hubei provinces, he wrote a letter attacking bad policy as
one causative factor of the revolt, thus incurring the Emperor's anger. He was
exiled to Ili district near the Russian boarder. He lived during the
Qianlong-Jiaqing period( 1736-1820 ). A hundred years after the Manchu
conquest, the economic situation developed and cultivated land increased
considerably. But population growth was more rapid than growth in land and
consumer goods. Therefore, in 1774( Qianlong 39 nian ) Wang Lun's peasant
revolt happened in Shandong province. In 1796( Jiaqing yuan nian ), the
Bailianjiao revolt occurred and continued for nine years, spreading to nine
provinces. These facts stimulated Hong's thinking.
Hong continued on the theme of Xu Guang-qi(徐光啓 1562-1633 ), who said
that population doubled every thirty years, and Hong developed it as follows :
‘As peace has existed for a long time, the population has
increased five times from thirty years ago, ten times from sixty years ago. If
compared with a hundred years ago or more, it has increased more than twenty
times.'
‘If a man marry and make three children, and those
children also marry, the family will be eight. If each child marries and makes
three grandsons, and they also marry, the family will be more than twenty,
although some of them will pass away. Thus the family will be more than fifty
or sixty persons including the next generations. Of course some families will
disappear, but some prosperous families will compensate for the decreased
number.' (
, Poems and Letters of Hong Bei-jiang , Bei-jiang
is a pen name of Hong Liang-ji).
On the other hand, he observed, the increase of social
wealth such as cultivated land and houses is very slow. So population increase
exceeds by a great degree that of land and houses. ‘Therefore land and houses
are always inadequate, households and population are always surplus.' Hong's
view on the relation between cultivated land and population has been regarded
as very similar to that of Malthus's view ( 1766-1834 ).
Then what were the bad results of excess population and
Hong's solution for the population problem ? In the first place, the standard
of living will decrease rapidly. ‘If one family with four persons has ten rooms
and 100 mu ( a Qing measure, which equals about 6.0 hectare) land, they are
rich. In the sons' days, even if the family members are fewer than ten persons,
rooms and land will be scarcely enough. In the grandsons' days ‘family members
will be more than twenty persons, so even if they eat measuring their share and
live measuring their space, those will certainly be insufficient.'( Hong Bei-jiang )
In the second place, inflation will bother people's lives.
‘Nowadays peasants have increased more than ten times within the same land.
Merchants have increased more than ten times within the same commodity.' Thus
the rice price increased six or seven times, and the cotton cloth price increased
five or six times. Some honest people even if they worked hard their whole
lives, could not escape from hunger and coldness.
Lastly, unemployment and social unrest. ‘When households
increase ten times compared with former days, those who live in idleness
increase several times more than ten.' In this situation if natural disasters
such as floods and droughts attack people, they cannot wait for death to come.
They will make rebellion.
Hong's solutions are two. One is ‘ heaven earth
adjustment', which means adjustment by floods, droughts and epidemic diseases.
The other one is ‘ Emperor's adjustment', which means development of
production, immigration for reclamation, decrease of taxation, opposition to
luxuriousness and annexation of land.
7.
From table 6 below we are surprised by the fact that
Chinese agriculture had developed such a high standard of agricultural
technique, which is shown by a high yield per hectare, and also surprised by
the quite slow rate of development after the Han dynasty. At that time the main
crop was millet and beans. During the Tang dynasty paddy rice was introduced
and the economic center began to move into southern China. Land productivity
increased 26％
over the Han period. In the Yuan period, the situation was almost the same as
in the Tang period. During the Song period, although southern areas were
developed, northern parts were occupied by foreign forces and land productivity
on the whole in China decreased. During the Ming period and earlier half of the
Qing period, multiple cropping of rice increased, and in addition corn and
sweet potatoes were introduced.
Table 6 Population, cultivated land per head and land
productivity
────────────────────────────────────────
year dynastic population cultivated land and labor productivity period ( million ) land( per
(metric ton ) (kilogram ) head
are) (per
hectare) (per person) ────────────────────────────────────────B.C.222(Warring
States)
20.0 31.95 1.62 460 A.D. 23(Western Han ) 59.5 28.20 1.98 100 496 100 750(Tang period ) 52.9 28.20 2.51 126 628 126 1100(Song period ) 104.0
28.13 2.32 117 579 116 1600(Ming period ) 130.0 24.22 2.59 130 559 112 1800(Qing period ) 361.0
12.83 2.75 138 314 63 1949(People's ) 541.7 18.30 1.28 64 209 42 1957( Republic ) 646.5 16.27 2.08 105 301 60 1978( 〃 ) 958.0
8.70 4.11 207 318 64 1980( 〃 ) 982.5
8.85 4.10 207 323 65 1982( 〃 ) 1015.4 8.55 4.57 230 348 70 ────────────────────────────────────────Data
are cited from Wuhui pp.195,220.
Thus land productivity increased 40％ over the Han period. This was
the peak of per unit yield. However, at that time labor productivity, which is
shown by per head food holding ( production divided by population ), decreased
to two thirds of the Han period. The increase of land productivity and decrease
of labor productivity are both caused by rapid population growth, especially
during the latter half of the Qing period.
After the 1949 Revolution the second explosion of
population subsequent to the Qing period occurred. This enlarged population was
fed by raising land productivity. On the other hand, labor productivity
recovered slowly. Land productivity per person was 348 kilograms in 1982, and
it had not recovered the peak in the Tang period. Food production per rural
labor was 946 kilograms in 1952, 1010 kilograms in 1957, 1040 kilograms in
1978. Food production per agricultural labor was 1246 kilograms in 1978, 20％ higher than per rural labor.
Anyway, per head food holding in 1978 was 318 kilograms
and scarcely exceeded 314 kilograms in the middle of the Qing period. Looking
forward to the year 2000, cultivated land will increase only 6.67 million
hectares, but it will also decrease almost the same amount through
industrialization. Therefore Chinese agriculture must continue to raise land
productivity. This is the very reason China must control population growth by
harsh measures including the one-child policy.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Fan Wen-lan范文瀾,
( Selected Articles on History ), Zhongguo Shehui
Kexue Chubanshe, 1979.
2. Ho Ping-ti 何炳棣
Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1959.
3. Ho Ping-ti,
Columbia University Press,1962.
4. Li Shi-ping李世平,“Hong Liang-ji shi ‘Zhongguo
de Malthus' ma ?"( Is Hong Liang-ji the Chinese
Malthus ? ),
( Social Sciences Research ),No.1,1979.
5. Li Xun 李洵,
( History of the Ming and Qing periods ), Renmin
Chubanshe,1956
6. Liang Fang-zhong 梁方仲,
( Historical Statistics of Household,Cultivated
Land and Taxes in China ), Shanghai Renmin Chubanshe 1980.
7. Lu Zhen-yu 呂振羽,
( Brief History of China ), Renmin Chubanshe,1959.
8. Ma Xiao-he 馬小鶴,“Qingdai Qianqi Renkou Shuzi Kanwu"(
Correction of Population Figure in Early Qing Period ),
( Journal of Fudan University ),No.1,1980.
9. Ma Xiao-he,Zhao Yuan-xin 趙元信 “Mingdai Gengdi Mianji Xiyi"( Dispelling
Doubts About Cultivated Land in the Ming Period ),
( Journal of Fudan University ),No.6,1980.
10. Mitamura Taisuke三田村泰助,
( World History vol. 9, The Last Oriental Society
), Chuo Koron Sha, 1975.
11. Peng Xin-wei彭信威,
( Monetary history of China ),1958.
12. Perkins,D.H.,
Edinburgh University Press,1969.
13. Shang Yue 尚鉞,
( Outline of Chinese History ), Renmin Chubanshe ,
1954.
14. Teng Ze-zhi 滕澤之,“Songdai Renkou Tupo Yiyi Daguan"( Population
Topped the 100 Million Mark in the Song Period ),
Population Research Bimonthly ),No.6,1986.
15. Tian Xue-yuan 田雪原 and Others,
Beijing, New World Press, 1981.
16. Wu Hui呉慧,
( A Study of Food Development in Chinese History
According to the Mu Unit ),Nongye Chubanshe,1985.
17. Xie Zhong-liang 謝忠梁,“Wang Shi-duo Renkou Sixiang Jinghua Chutan"(
The Essence of Demographic Thought of Wang Shi-duo ),
( Journal of Nanjing University ),No.4,1979.
18. Yabuki Susumu 矢吹晋,
( China in the Year 2000 ), Ronsosha, 1984.
19. Zhang Minru 張敏如,
( A Short History of Population Thought in China
),Zhongguo Renmin Daxue Chubanshe,1982.
20. Zhou Bo-di周伯棣,
( Financial History of China ) ,Shanghai Renmin
Chubanshe, 1981.
21. Zhou Yuan-he周源和,“Hong Liang-ji de Renkouxue Sixiang"(
Demographical Thought of Hong Liang-ji ),
( Journal of Fudan University ),No.1,1980.
22. Zhou Yuan-he,“Qingchu Renkou Tongji Xiyi"(
Dispelling Doubts About Population Statistics in the Early Qing Period ),
( Journal of Fudan University ),No.3,1980.
SUMMARY
1. Since the third plenum of the 11th Party Congress, the
Chinese government has adopted a hard line policy on birth control. In the
process of demographic study, historical demography has also developed
remarkably. This paper deals with recent achievements in this field by Chinese
scholars.
2. It had been long regarded that Chinese population
increased etraordinarily from 26.00 million in the thirties to 140.00 million
in the forties of the 18th century. This popular view was brought about by a
misunderstanding of the historical record. The figure 26.00 million stands for
housholds, therefore population was five times more than this figure. Thus the
alleged rapid population growth was not so rapid as has previously been
considered. However, population growth during the Qing period was quite rapid.
Chinese history offers many records on historical demography, but we must be
careful to ditinguish household and population in analysis of the Qing records.
3. Before the 1949 Revolution, Chinese population had been
regarded to have exceeded 100 million in the middle of the 18th century. In the
1960's Chinese population was regarded to have exceeded 100 million in the end
of the 16th century, that is to say in the Ming period. Recently Chinese
scholars proposed a view that it exceeded 100 million in the 12th century, that
is to say in the Song period. The official population figures in the Song
period included only the number of male adults, therefore the total population
including females must be doubled. Thus, Chinese population exceeded 100
million as early as the Song dynasty.
4. In the first half of the Qing period, population
increased quite rapidly, but cultivated land did not increase, so land per head
decreased rapidly. From the middle of the 18th century land per head decreased
more than 50 ％ in
80 years. These land decreases lowered people's standard of living, thus
incurring the fear of intelligent people. Hong Liang-ji was a typical
scholar-official who feared the results of excessive population. He has been
called the Chinese Malthus.
5. Chinese agricultural development has a very unique
characteristic. During the Han period, it developed to a very high level, and
after that, land productivity did not develop so much until the 1970's. The
peak of land productivity in the beginning of the 19th century was not
surpassed until the 1970's. These are very strange and interesting facts.
6. Through the study of the relation between agricultural
development and population growth, we can fully understand the necessity of the
one-child policy which the Chinese government is now pursuing.